Week 16 – Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Ryan_mathews

Week 16 – Fantasy Football Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em:

Start ‘Em:

Philip Rivers – We wouldn’t be scared away by Rivers’ low stat-line last week of 166 Yards, 2 TDs and the completion/attempt ratio of 12 for 20. We feel it was a necessary game plan to pound the football on the ground, keeping Peyton Manning off the field as much as possible. Playing Oakland this week should be a different story. Oakland’s porous secondary leaves an opportunity for Rivers to have a strong outing in Week 16. He has been a solid option for owners all season and we look for this trend to continue. BTW – Last game vs. Oakland, Rivers racked up 411 Yards, 2 TDs and went 35 for 48. It’s evident that San Diego’s game-plan is a bit different vs. Oakland than that of Denver.  

Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick has been a disappointment in 2013. However, when presented with a great matchup – he takes advantage of it. San Fran hosts Atlanta this week who have been consistently exposed by the pass this season by both great and terrible QBs. We like the start here and think that Kaep and the San Fran receiving corps have a big day. BTW – Atlanta has allowed the 3rd most receiving TD’s and the 8th most passing yards.

Ryan Mathews – Mathews is coming off of two big games. Week 14 vs. NYG – 29 Rushing Attempts, 103 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 32 Receiving Yards. Week 15 vs. 29 Rushing Attempts, 127 Rushing Yards, 1 TD. With Oakland coming off a sour performance being gashed by Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews ‘hot hand or feet, we think that this start makes sense in more ways than one. OAK is allowing 105 rush yards per game this season. They rank 27th in the league to opposing RB’s.  The past 3 weeks, OAK has allowed opposing RB’s to score an average of 38 points. Start Mathews with confidence in Week 16.

Michael Crabtree – As Jim Cramer would say … “BUY, BUY, BUY!” We like all things San Fran this week against an awful Atlanta Defense. Crabtree has been inching toward that big game performance and we think Week 16 might be it. He is coming off of two difficult matchups in TB (Revis) and SEA. With Atlanta allowing opposing QBs to score multiple TDs in each game this season (Except Matt Flynn – Week 14) – they also have allowed the 3rd most receiving TD’s and the 8th most passing yards. we think the potential is there for a huge game from both Kaep and Crabtree.

Pierre Garcon – With the QB change to Kirk Cousins, Garcon put together a booming performance in Week 15 going 7 Receptions, 129 Receiving Yards, 1 TD and 10 Targets (vs. ATL). We see a similar performance as he is going up against a sketchy Dallas defense in Week 16. The Dallas defense has allowed a boatload of points over the last 2 games – 45 points against Chicago and 37 points against the Matt Flynn led Green Bay Packers. Garcon will be a solid start in all formats for Week 16.

Charles Clay – Buffalo ranks 11th in the league against TE’s this season allowing them to catch an average of 3 catches for 41 yards. Despite this unfavorable matchup, the Bills have allowed a TE to score a TD the past 4 games.  Look to Clay as an upside TE pick this week in this important Miami Playoff Bound contest.

Lions Defense If you are looking to stream a Defense in Week 16, there aren’t a ton of options out there. However, Detroit presents a nice case to be a strong play. Coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Baltimore and in a must-win format, the Lions face a NYG team who is now without Victor Cruz. Consider Andre Brown stuffed before the game even begins by the stout Detroit Rush Defense. Eli Manning tossed 8 INTs over the last 3 games, 5 INTs coming last week vs. SEA. As Detroit plays at Home, we see them building points for managers by route of INTs and Sacks. 

Sit ‘Em:

Matt Ryan – Matt Ryan is a shell of what he was at the beginning of the season. Week after week he puts together mediocre games and barely fills the stat card for fantasy owners. In the past 7 games, Ryan has only went over the 300 yard mark once. We can’t stress it enough that you should avoid putting Ryan in your fantasy lineups. His performances have been dismal vs. poor defensive teams and in Week 16 he faces San Fran. This is a situation we are avoiding all the way around and think that most waiver wires have better options available.

Andre Brown – Detroit is allowing opposing RB’s to score an average of only 10 points per game at home this season. In Detroit’s last 5 of 6 games (excluding McCoy’s monster game in the snow), the Lions are only giving up an average of 2.3 YPC. They’ve held Top Tier RB’s to the following:

– Matt Forte: 17 carries – 33 rush yards
– Le’Veon Bell: 18 carries – 36 rush yards
– Bobby Rainey: 18 carries – 35 rush yards
– Eddie Lacy: 10 carries – 16 rush yards
– Ray Rice: 12 carries – 56 rush yards

With Eli Manning having serious issues and his top WR – Victor Cruz being out, we expect Detroit to make New York beat them thru the air and continue to stuff the run as they have all season. If you have Brown and plan to start him, be prepared for a very mediocre day.

CJ Spiller – If you have made it this far with the Russian-Roulette-like CJ Spiller on your roster. Is it even a question to start him this week? That question should be followed by the answer of “No!” Coming off of 2 sour performances vs. TB and JAX, we don’t trust Spiller at all. If you start Spiller, you are a “Clark Griswald” type of gambler – managers will hate you for starting him if he blows up and you will hate yourself for starting him if he doesn’t. All in all, if you hit start next to his name – be prepared for a soul-searching bout after the game … asking yourself, “Why did I do it?!?”

Michael Floyd/Larry Fitzgerald Both are coming off injuries to only face the toughest pass defense in the toughest stadium to play at in the world. The Seahawks are allowing a NFL best 13 points to opposing WR’s this season, but only 10 points at home. Stay away from these two in Championship Week!

 

2013's Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts in the nation.

35 Comments

  1. memphis9teen@yahoo.com'

    memphis

    December 21, 2013 at 3:04 AM

    eI really want Todman in my lineup this week but would have to take out Bush/Allen or Edelman.

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:27 AM

      Can’t recommend taking any of those guys out for The Todfather.

  2. team.uga@gmail.com'

    JL

    December 21, 2013 at 3:28 AM

    WDIS – (PPR) Keenan Allen or Jordy Nelson? (PPR – Need a replacement for Cameron) Coby Fleenor, Zach Miller, or Ryan Griffin?

  3. jasonpates@gmail.com'

    Jason

    December 21, 2013 at 7:49 AM

    Superbowl week!
    QB: Going with Foles over Stafford.
    RB: Trying to decide between McCoy, Forte, and Murray at RB (pick 2). Leaning towards McCoy and Murray, although some say I’ll regret sitting Forte.
    WR/TE/K: No real debates to discuss.
    DEF: Lions? Browns? Dolphins? Rams? Panthers? Leaning towards Lions.
    All suggestions welcomed! (standard scoring)

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:34 AM

      QB – Foles
      RB – McCoy and Murray (Nice Problem to have, Murray provides a better shot to score a TD)
      Def – Detroit (They should grab some points in Sacks and INTs – with Cruz out, that will only help)

  4. stcremer@indiana.edu'

    Cremedaddy

    December 21, 2013 at 8:52 AM

    0.5 PPR league. Should I start dolphins over rams D? VJ over Edelman or allen? Really not sure what to do. Thanks

    Newton
    Charles
    Bernard
    Megatron
    K. Allen
    Pitta
    Edelman
    Rams D
    Novak

    Bench:
    V. Jackson
    J. Bell
    Dolphins D
    Quarless
    Caldwell

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 1:09 AM

      Go – MIA as their defense has been hot and BUF has been not, Allen (Both Edelman and Allen are more consistent options than VJAX). VJax is the poster-boy for inconsistency and not worth it in the fantasy championship matchup.

  5. RRush59@twc.com'

    Ron

    December 21, 2013 at 10:08 AM

    Standard Lg. I have Charles,Murray at RB with Alf in my flex. Orange Julius @TE. Foles @QB. D.Thomas @ 1 WR. Pick one Edelman/J. Nelson,Crabtree. Sea/Det D ?
    Thanks !

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 1:11 AM

      Nice team. Go – Edelman & Seattle’s D for sure (Home Game, Fitz/Palmer & Floyd banged up). Edelman is playing so well that it wouldn’t be wise to bench him. Also like Crabtree, but think Edelman is the better option.

  6. Jonwvudds@gmail.com'

    Jon Abraham

    December 21, 2013 at 10:57 AM

    Would you start Anquan Boldin or Dennis Johnson in a 1/2 PPR league? Thanks!

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 1:12 AM

      Boldin. ATL’s pass defense will be exploited.

  7. f71bc123@opayq.com'

    Bo

    December 21, 2013 at 12:08 PM

    I play a team who has Peyton Manning as their starting QB, in the Championship game. This is my 1st Championship appearance and I’ve only ever been in 1 very competitive league. I’ve had and started Juluis Thomas and Wes Welker for much of the season. I am going to start Thomas, and you know Wes’s story. Yesterday I picked up Andre Caldwell. Right now in my 12 team standard league, I am going to start Josh Gordon and Pierre Garcon at WRs & Keenan Allen at Flex. Would taking one of those starters out to insert Caldwell be a good, bad or maybe you think an unnecessary strategy, with the purpose of negating points Peyton will get. Thomas has a slightly more favorable match-up than the WRs. Thanks Mr Legion & Congrats on your impressive accuracy rankings at Fantasy Pros, this season.

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 1:13 AM

      Definitely not – don’t get too cute. We recommend NOT starting Caldwell. Thanks – we appreciate your support.

  8. corbin.hall@okstate.edu'

    Hall89

    December 21, 2013 at 12:14 PM

    I have a flex question. D. Johnson, or todman. Also who should I start in my WR2 slot mike Wallace, C. Patterson, or D. Baldwin.

  9. timjobenn@gmail.com'

    Tim

    December 21, 2013 at 12:58 PM

    WR advice needed. PPR league. I’m starting Keenan Allen for sure, but I need to choose my WR2. Here are my choices: James Jones vs Steelers; Riley Cooper vs Bears; Denarius Moore vs Chargers. Any thoughts??

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:36 AM

      Cooper. He doesn’t get a ton of receptions, but he offers the highest upside and floor; and the best QB out of the bunch.

  10. hvhuynh@gmail.com'

    Hong

    December 21, 2013 at 3:57 PM

    Please help with this lineup decision:

    Start 3 of AP, Charles, Stacy and L. Bell. AP and Charles for sure right?

    Do I got with G. Jennings or Randle as #3 WR if I’m playing AP???

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:50 AM

      Charles and Stacy for sure. Continue to monitor the AP decision to see what they reveal in terms of PT or touches he is expected to receive, before the game. I can’t see a reason why Minn would take the risk with them nowhere even near contention.

      Jennings.

  11. erikjwilson@hotmail.com'

    Erik

    December 21, 2013 at 6:51 PM

    Hi Derek. Great website. I have a tough RB 2 matchup.
    Have to start only 1:
    Andre Brown
    CJ Spiller
    C Ivory
    I’m leaning toward Ivory but you have Brown and Spiller ranked slightly higher.
    Wondering what your thoughts are? Made it to the Championship game despite Spiller
    And this is a big call for me. I am playing Crabtree as my flex…..I assume you like home better than Spiller or Brown?

    Thanks…..

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:55 AM

      Thanks!

      Here are our thoughts on Andre Brown and why we’re scared away by him:

      Detroit is allowing opposing RB’s to score an average of only 10 points per game at home this season. In Detroit’s last 5 of 6 games (excluding McCoy’s monster game in the snow), the Lions are only giving up an average of 2.3 YPC. They’ve held Top Tier RB’s to the following:

      – Matt Forte: 17 carries – 33 rush yards
      – Le’Veon Bell: 18 carries – 36 rush yards
      – Bobby Rainey: 18 carries – 35 rush yards
      – Eddie Lacy: 10 carries – 16 rush yards
      – Ray Rice: 12 carries – 56 rush yards

      With Eli Manning having serious issues and his top WR – Victor Cruz being out, we expect Detroit to make New York beat them thru the air and continue to stuff the run as they have all season. If you have Brown and plan to start him, be prepared for a very mediocre day.

      Spiller has been the ultimate question mark all season. Great matchup or not, due to his instability – we can’t recommend you taking that kind of risk.

      We think Ivory offers you the safest bet in getting for-sure points.

  12. jeremiahboyer@gmail.com'

    Jeremiah Boyer

    December 22, 2013 at 1:44 AM

    I know the “rule” in the fantasy playoffs is to play your studs, but I have 11 studs and can only play 8(2rb 2wr 4flex) in my 8 team PPR championship game.

    Calvin, Edelman, DeSean, K.Wright, Amendola

    R.Bush, Lacy, Stacy, Vereen, Lynch, Todman

    ECR says to bench Lynch, Amendola, Todman
    Your rankings says to bench Amendola, Todman, DeSean
    Any particular reason why you are so low on DeSean this week?
    My rankings have Amendola, Lynch, Wright on the bench.

    Any thoughts/advice would be great, thanks!!!

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:08 PM

      RB – Bush, Lacy
      WR – Calvin, Edelman (monitor Calvins playing status)
      Flex – Stacy, Lynch, Desean, Vereen

  13. gwen@skynsurf.com'

    Willow

    December 22, 2013 at 3:11 AM

    A. Smith or Cousins? worried about wind gusts more with Cousins, but…

    Pitta or Griffin, if Griffin starts?

    SF Def. or Cleveland?

    thanks!

  14. a3akbari@gmail.com'

    alex akbari

    December 22, 2013 at 3:44 AM

    What do you think about who i’m starting vs who’s on my bench…. http://i.imgur.com/tA9yL5P.png
    Also, I’m thinking about starting the chiefs kicker, ryan succop bc my opponent has alex smith an jamaal charles…. should i stick with gostkowski?

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:24 PM

      Stick with Gostkowski and start DETs D.

  15. hvhuynh@gmail.com'

    Hong

    December 22, 2013 at 4:23 AM

    Been following you all year. Need help at my #3 WR spot.

    I’ve been using M. Floyd all year but he plays Sea this week so I’m sitting him.

    Do I go with Marvin Jones, Santana Moss, or A. Robinson? 0.5ppr.

    Rest of team: Brees, Charles, Bush, Gordon, Randle, J. Graham, and Todman.

    Lost V. Cruz to injury

    • Legion Report

      December 22, 2013 at 12:24 PM

      Thanks.

      Probably Marvin Jones. Not crazy about any of them though.

  16. Hvhuynh@gmail.com'

    Hong

    December 22, 2013 at 12:31 PM

    With Todman now out do you go with Dennis Johnson or M ball? 0.5 ppr

    Johnson with more touches but Ball better bet for garbage yards and TD?

    Please help with last min decision

  17. Brale46571@aol.com'

    Brenda Raleigh

    December 29, 2013 at 12:12 AM

    STD Need 1 RB and 1 Flex- Not starting Jamaal Charles right? Knile Davis, Andre Brown, Vereen, Rainey and VJax. Thanks

  18. bnicholson3975@gmail.com'

    Bryan

    December 29, 2013 at 12:43 PM

    Congratulations on an outstanding year…you pulled me this far! My final question of the year, Philly DEF or Chargers? Thanks again!

    • Legion Report

      January 2, 2014 at 4:38 PM

      Thanks a lot. Sorry, just saw the comment!

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